Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.003215 0.003528 0.003862 0.004245 0.004674 0.005140 0.005686
2026-01-11 0.002654 0.003086 0.003581 0.004190 0.004925 0.005787 0.006882
2026-01-18 0.002329 0.002816 0.003399 0.004152 0.005109 0.006295 0.007894
2026-01-25 0.002088 0.002602 0.003240 0.004097 0.005233 0.006706 0.008792
2026-02-01 0.001926 0.002463 0.003151 0.004108 0.005424 0.007200 0.009830
2026-02-08 0.001769 0.002314 0.003030 0.004055 0.005512 0.007549 0.010687
2026-02-15 0.001628 0.002171 0.002901 0.003974 0.005544 0.007810 0.011431
2026-02-22 0.001539 0.002091 0.002850 0.003994 0.005716 0.008282 0.012533
2026-03-01 0.001486 0.002056 0.002857 0.004095 0.006012 0.008960 0.014027
2026-03-08 0.001391 0.001954 0.002760 0.004031 0.006046 0.009228 0.014873
2026-03-15 0.001304 0.001856 0.002661 0.003955 0.006052 0.009447 0.015651
2026-03-22 0.001235 0.001782 0.002592 0.003918 0.006115 0.009762 0.016625
2026-03-29 0.001184 0.001735 0.002564 0.003952 0.006307 0.010331 0.018165
2026-04-05 0.001117 0.001658 0.002488 0.003901 0.006355 0.010657 0.019304
2026-04-12 0.001060 0.001593 0.002424 0.003866 0.006425 0.011025 0.020566
2026-04-19 0.001004 0.001528 0.002355 0.003816 0.006460 0.011331 0.021737
2026-04-26 0.000966 0.001487 0.002323 0.003826 0.006605 0.011854 0.023427
2026-05-03 0.000919 0.001430 0.002261 0.003777 0.006636 0.012158 0.024683
2026-05-10 0.000871 0.001368 0.002187 0.003702 0.006610 0.012344 0.025699
2026-05-17 0.000842 0.001338 0.002165 0.003721 0.006764 0.012911 0.027670
2026-05-24 0.000828 0.001332 0.002183 0.003814 0.007074 0.013833 0.030621
2026-05-31 0.000791 0.001282 0.002123 0.003755 0.007070 0.014080 0.031952
2026-06-07 0.000754 0.001232 0.002060 0.003685 0.007037 0.014263 0.033142